Market Prediction for Home Service Contractors

Stop guessing where and when the next job is. We already know.

Tactrak pinpoints the homes in your service area most likely to need a replacement in the next 6–12 months — and hands you the mailer, the addresses, and the timing. No dashboards to interpret. Nothing to adjust. Just the next campaign, ready to send.

15 yrs
Average HVAC lifespan — your replacement window is already open
78%
Of homeowners buy from the first contractor to reach them
6 Plays
Pre-built campaigns with copy, targeting, and timing included
$11.5K
Avg. HVAC replacement ticket — one closed job pays 5 years of Tactrak

Three steps. No dashboards to interpret.

ServiceTitan shows you your data. Housecall Pro shows you your data. Jobber shows you your data. None of them answer the one question that matters: which homes in your service area need replacement right now? Tactrak does.

01
Input

Tell us your zip.

Enter your zip code and what you install — AC, heat pump, furnace, water heater. 30 seconds, no credit card.

02
Prediction

We score every home.

Our engine returns a Replacement Probability Score for your service area and flags the homes most likely to need you in the next 6–12 months.

03
Execution

You send the campaign.

Pick the matching Playbook. Copy is pre-written. Addresses are exported. Timing is already locked to your market's seasonal curve. Mail it. Close it. Repeat.

Two scores. One revenue gap. Six plays.

Tactrak doesn't just show you the market opportunity. It shows you whether your business is set up to capture it — and the dollar gap between the two. Then it hands you the playbook to close it.

RPS · Market Opportunity

Replacement Probability Score

A 0–100 score per zip code that ranks how likely homes in your service area are to need replacement in the next 6–12 months. You see the score. Your competitor doesn't.

CRS · Capture Readiness

Capture Readiness Score

A 6-question diagnostic that scores whether your operation is equipped to convert the leads these playbooks generate. Surfaces exactly which gaps are costing you — missed calls, slow response, no follow-up, no review system.

Revenue Gap

Dollar-Value Gap Analysis

The math in plain English: "Your zip has $181,000 in replacement opportunity. You're equipped to capture $32,000 of it. The $148,000 gap is what the right operational upgrades would unlock."

Playbooks · Execution

6 Pre-Built Campaign Plays

The playbooks are the product. Each one tells you exactly who to target, what to mail, how to reach them, when to send it, and what it'll cost. No filter sliders. No decisions. Just execute.

Assets Included

Copy, Lists, Scripts

Pre-written mailer copy with merge fields auto-populated from your zip data. CSV address list exports ready for your printer. Follow-up scripts and review-request sequences built in. Generate a mail-ready campaign in under 10 minutes.

Missed-Call Recovery

ITBEHERE Text-Back Integration

Pro includes ITBEHERE's missed-call text-back — when a prospect calls and you can't pick up, the system auto-texts them inside 60 seconds. The job you couldn't answer doesn't end up on your competitor's schedule. Playbooks find them. Text-back catches them.

Each play is a full campaign. Not just a list of leads.

Every playbook covers all four phases of the sale — outreach, follow-up, closing, and review. You don't get a spreadsheet and a pep talk. You get the mailer, the scripts, the scheduling sequence, the close framework, and the review cadence. Pre-written. Ready to run.

01
Outreach
Mailer + digital ad copy with your local data merged in. Launch checklist included.
02
Follow-Up
Response protocol, scheduling scripts, confirmation + reminder sequence, no-response drip.
03
Closing
Guidance, not a script. The close is your expertise — the playbook gives you the context.
04
Review
3-touch review sequence timed to peak satisfaction. Turn the job into future jobs.
PLAY 01

The Replacement Zone

The manufacturer's clock has run out on a huge chunk of your zip. Message: "Your system is 15 years old — here's what Carrier, Lennox, and Trane say about systems this age." Factual. Not alarmist. Positions you as the expert, not one of three bidders.

● Triggers RPS ≥ 70 ● AC · Heat Pump · Furnace · Boiler · WH
PLAY 02

Forced Replacement

Older AC systems run on refrigerant that was banned in 2020. Every recharge now runs $250–$1,500. One more recharge is a down payment on a new system. You don't sell urgency — the math does. You just name what's already happening.

● Triggers 40%+ exposure ● Central AC · Heat Pump
PLAY 03

Pre-Season Surge

4–6 weeks before peak season — before phones explode and you're 5–7 days out. $79 tune-up is the entry point. 50 tune-ups typically surface 10–15 replacement jobs. The inspection report becomes the sales tool.

● Always triggered ● All HVAC equipment
PLAY 04

New Homeowner Window

The 2-week window after a deed transfer on an older home. They just spent big, they have no HVAC company yet, and the inspector said "functional" without mentioning the system is 5 years past recommended life. First name they hear wins them for life. 5–15/week, high-touch.

● Recent transactions ● All equipment types
PLAY 05

Efficiency Upgrade + Rebate Stack

Systems that still work but waste $400–$600/year on an old SEER rating. Most owners never call you — nothing's broken. Lead with the cost of doing nothing, then the rebate stack. Federal + state + utility can cover 30–40% of the ticket.

● Triggers RPS ≥ 31 ● AC · Heat Pump · Furnace · WH
PLAY 06

Water Heater Failure Prevention

Water heaters don't gradually fail — they rupture and flood. Average damage: $5,200, not counting mold. Replacement: $1,500–$4,500. Fastest close in home services, often same-day. For HVAC+plumbing ops, this is high-volume revenue that complements long HVAC cycles.

● Triggers RPS ≥ 40 ● Tank + Tankless Water Heaters
+ FREE AUDIT

Unlock Your First Playbook

Run the free Market Opportunity Audit — pick any one of the 6 playbooks, export 100 addresses, and prove the ROI before you pay a dollar.

Here's exactly how the new revenue shows up.

The mechanism is simple: same marketing budget, but mailing only the homes Tactrak flags as replacement-ready instead of blasting a zip-bomb of everyone. Untargeted mail gets 0.3% response. A Tactrak-qualified list gets 2%+. Every added job comes from that one difference. Drag the sliders — the math below shows every step.

Four inputs you already know

Every other number below is calculated from these four. No projections, no magic.

Zip codes you serve 3
125
Avg. replacement ticket $11,500
$3K$25K
Monthly direct-mail budget $2,500
$500$10K
Your close rate on qualified leads 25%
15%45%
Replacement-ready homes in your zips 2,400 3 zips × ~800 qualified homes per zip
Mail pieces your budget buys / year 35,294 $2,500/mo × 12 ÷ $0.85 per piece
Actual mail volume / year 7,200 Capped by prospect pool (2,400 homes × 3 touches). Add zips to scale.
Responses at 2% (Tactrak-targeted) 144 Untargeted mail = 0.3%. Tactrak-qualified = 2%+ (DMA benchmark).
Closed jobs / year 36 Responses × your 25% close rate
Annual revenue from Tactrak campaigns CALCULATED
$414,000
36 closed jobs × $11,500 ticket = new revenue that wasn't happening before Tactrak.
Tactrak Pro · annual cost $2,388
Net profit over the subscription $411,612
Return multiple on Tactrak 173×
Sources: response rates from DMA Response Rate Report (targeted vs. untargeted mail). Close rate is your own input. $0.85/piece is industry-standard all-in direct mail cost (design + print + postage). 800 qualified homes per zip is a conservative average — actual count in your zips is pulled live when you run the free audit.

Prove the model for free. Scale when the math is obvious.

The free tier gives you a real playbook execution — not a teaser. Pick one play, see your data merged into the copy, export 100 target addresses, mail them. If that produces one $11,500 job, the ROI is proven before you've paid a dollar.

Free Audit

Market Audit

$ 0 / forever

Run one zip, pick one playbook, prove the ROI before you pay anything.

  • Full Market Opportunity Score (RPS)
  • Full Capture Readiness Score (CRS)
  • Revenue Gap Analysis with dollar values
  • 1 zip code · 1 playbook execution
  • 100 target addresses (CSV export)
  • Follow-up + review scripts included
  • Additional zip codes
  • Seasonal demand forecast
  • Missed-call text-back
  • Rebate calculator with dollar values
Run Free Audit
Full Control

Enterprise

$ 597 / month

For agencies, multi-location operators, and contractors who want the filter engine.

  • Everything in Pro
  • Unlimited zip codes
  • Adjustable filter panel
  • Custom playbook builder
  • Full competitor density monitoring
  • Dedicated account manager
  • Priority support
Talk to Sales
Capability Free Pro Enterprise
Zip codes110Unlimited
Replacement Probability Score (RPS)
Capture Readiness Score (CRS)
Revenue Gap analysis
Playbooks unlocked1 of 6All 6All 6 + custom
4-phase campaign system (copy + scripts)
Address export cap100UnlimitedUnlimited
Seasonal demand forecast
Competitor density dataSummaryFull monitoring
Rebate calculator with dollar values
Monthly data briefing email
Missed-call text-back (ITBEHERE)
Adjustable filter panelRead-onlyFull control
Custom playbook builder
SupportSelf-servePriorityPriority + dedicated

Not sure which tier fits? Let's look at your zips together.

Call us. In 15 minutes we'll pull your service area's Market Opportunity Score, walk through your Capture Readiness gaps, and tell you which playbook will produce the first closed job fastest.

Before you run the free audit.

The questions every contractor asks in the first five minutes. Short answers. If we missed one, call (888) 789-2467.

How is this different from ServiceTitan, Housecall Pro, or Jobber?

Those platforms show you your own data — jobs you've already done, revenue you've already made. Tactrak shows you the homes in your service area that haven't called you yet but are statistically likely to in the next 6–12 months. Completely new revenue.

Isn't this just a mailing list I could buy from a broker?

A broker sells you addresses. Tactrak gives you the addresses, phone numbers, emails, the message copy, the follow-up scripts, the scheduling sequence, the closing guidance, the review-request cadence — AND the data showing which of those homes are most likely to need your services. That's the difference between a list and a playbook.

How fast can I run my first campaign?

Under 10 minutes. Run the free audit, pick a playbook, export the address CSV, and hand it to your print shop. The copy is already written with your local data merged in — you just add your phone number and send.

Do I pay for the mailers on top of the subscription?

Yes. Tactrak is the targeting + playbook layer — we don't mail or launch your campaigns for you. Mail costs are separate, typically $0.50–$1.00 per piece all-in (design, print, postage). One closed job usually pays for a full year of mail.

What if I don't want to run direct mail?

Every playbook also includes pre-written digital ad copy for Facebook, Instagram, and Google LSA — plus door-hanger templates for local plays. Use whatever channel fits your market. The targeting and messaging are already done.

I only do plumbing. Does this work for me?

Yes. Tactrak filters playbooks by trade. Plumbing-only shops see Water Heater Failure Prevention plus the water-heater versions of Replacement Zone, New Homeowner, and Efficiency Upgrade. HVAC+Plumbing operators see every play.

What does "Replacement Probability Score" actually measure?

A 0–100 score combining housing stock age, equipment lifecycle, climate stress, refrigerant exposure, and transaction history for your specific zip codes. Higher score = more homes in the replacement window. Each playbook fires at a different RPS threshold.

Can I cancel anytime?

Yes. Month-to-month. No contracts, no cancellation fees. If the subscription doesn't pay for itself in closed jobs, it shouldn't be in your stack. Prove the ROI with the free audit first.