Market Prediction for Home Service Contractors

Stop guessing where and when the next job is. We already know.

Tactrak pinpoints the homes in your service area most likely to need a replacement in the next 6–12 months — and hands you the mailer, the addresses, and the timing. No dashboards to interpret. Nothing to adjust. Just the next campaign, ready to send. Prove the ROI before you pay a dollar.

15 yrs
Average HVAC lifespan — your replacement window is already open
78%
Of homeowners buy from the first contractor to reach them
15+ Playbooks
Pre-built campaigns with copy, targeting, and timing included
$11.5K
Avg. HVAC replacement ticket — one closed job pays 5 years of Tactrak

Three steps. No dashboards to interpret.

ServiceTitan shows you your data. Housecall Pro shows you your data. Jobber shows you your data. None of them answer the one question that matters: which homes in your service area need replacement right now? Tactrak does.

01
Input

Tell us your zip.

Enter your zip code and what you install — AC, heat pump, furnace, water heater. 30 seconds, no credit card.

02
Prediction

We score every home.

Our engine returns a Market Opportunity Score for your service area and flags the homes most likely to need you in the next 6–12 months. Built from utility lifecycle data, public records, weather stress patterns, and 15 years of replacement timing in this category.

03
Execution

You send the campaign.

Pick the matching Playbook. Copy is pre-written. Addresses are exported. Timing is already locked to your market's seasonal curve. Mail it. Close it. Repeat.

One score. One revenue gap. Twenty playbooks.

Tactrak doesn't just show you the market opportunity. It shows you the dollar gap your zip is leaving on the table — then hands you the playbook to close it. HVAC, plumbing, and roofing.

Market Opportunity Score

Score every home in your zip

A 0–100 score per zip code that ranks how likely homes in your service area are to need replacement in the next 6–12 months. You see the score. Your competitor doesn't.

Revenue Gap

Dollar-Value Gap Analysis

The math in plain English: "Your zip has $181,000 in replacement opportunity hiding inside it." See the gap, then close it with the playbook that fits.

Playbooks · Execution

20 Pre-Built Campaign Playbooks

The playbooks are the product. Each one tells you exactly who to target, what to mail, how to reach them, when to send it. 3 unlock free; the full library unlocks with Pro. No filter sliders. No decisions. Just execute.

Assets Included

Copy, Lists, Scripts

Pre-written mailer copy with merge fields auto-populated from your zip data. CSV address list exports ready for your printer. Follow-up scripts and review-request sequences built in. Mail-ready in under 10 minutes.

Weather + Storm Data

NOAA storm-event triggers

When hail, wind, or freeze events hit your service area, the matching playbook activates with the storm date, severity, and affected addresses already loaded. Reach storm-hit homeowners before the insurance window closes.

Rebates Built-In

DSIRE rebate data in every playbook

Federal, state, and utility rebate programs auto-populate inside the playbook copy — filtered to the operator's state and equipment type. The dollar math is already done. You drop the numbers into the mailer.

Each play is a full campaign. Not just a list of leads.

Every playbook covers all four phases of the sale — outreach, follow-up, closing, and review. You don't get a spreadsheet and a pep talk. You get the mailer, the scripts, the scheduling sequence, the close framework, and the review cadence. Pre-written. Ready to run. Six are featured below — all 20 unlock with Pro.

01
Outreach
Mailer + digital ad copy with your local data merged in. Launch checklist included.
02
Follow-Up
Response protocol, scheduling scripts, confirmation + reminder sequence, no-response drip.
03
Closing
Guidance, not a script. The close is your expertise — the playbook gives you the context.
04
Review
3-touch review sequence timed to peak satisfaction. Turn the job into future jobs.
PLAY 01

The Replacement Zone

The manufacturer's clock has run out on a huge chunk of your zip. Message: "Your system is 15 years old — here's what Carrier, Lennox, and Trane say about systems this age." Factual. Not alarmist. Positions you as the expert, not one of three bidders.

● Triggers RPS ≥ 70 ● AC · Heat Pump · Furnace · Boiler · WH
PLAY 02

Forced Replacement

Older AC systems run on refrigerant that was banned in 2020. Every recharge now runs $250–$1,500. One more recharge is a down payment on a new system. You don't sell urgency — the math does. You just name what's already happening.

● Triggers 40%+ exposure ● Central AC · Heat Pump
PLAY 03

Pre-Season Surge

4–6 weeks before peak season — before phones explode and you're 5–7 days out. $79 tune-up is the entry point. 50 tune-ups typically surface 10–15 replacement jobs. The inspection report becomes the sales tool.

● Always triggered ● All HVAC equipment
PLAY 04

New Homeowner Window

The 2-week window after a deed transfer on an older home. They just spent big, they have no HVAC company yet, and the inspector said "functional" without mentioning the system is 5 years past recommended life. First name they hear wins them for life. 5–15/week, high-touch.

● Recent transactions ● All equipment types
PLAY 05

Efficiency Upgrade + Rebate Stack

Systems that still work but waste $400–$600/year on an old SEER rating. Most owners never call you — nothing's broken. Lead with the cost of doing nothing, then the rebate stack. Federal + state + utility can cover 30–40% of the ticket.

● Triggers RPS ≥ 31 ● AC · Heat Pump · Furnace · WH
PLAY 06

Water Heater Failure Prevention

Water heaters don't gradually fail — they rupture and flood. Average damage: $5,200, not counting mold. Replacement: $1,500–$4,500. Fastest close in home services, often same-day. For HVAC+plumbing ops, this is high-volume revenue that complements long HVAC cycles.

● Triggers RPS ≥ 40 ● Tank + Tankless Water Heaters
+ 9 MORE PLAYBOOKS

Unlock the full library

14 more campaigns across HVAC, plumbing, and roofing. All 20 playbooks unlock with Pro — pays for itself with one closed job. Start free, upgrade when the math is obvious.

Here's exactly how the new revenue shows up.

The mechanism is simple: same marketing budget, but mailing only the homes Tactrak flags as replacement-ready instead of blasting a zip-bomb of everyone. Untargeted mail gets 0.3% response. A Tactrak-qualified list gets 2%+. Every added job comes from that one difference. Drag the sliders — the math below shows every step.

Five inputs you already know

Every other number below is calculated from these — anchored on the Tactrak RPS algorithm's prediction for your zips.

Climate zone Moderate
Zip codes you serve 3
125
Avg. ticket per closed job (blended) $9,500
$3K$25K
Monthly direct-mail budget $2,500
$500$10K
Your close rate on qualified leads 25%
15%45%
Predicted replacements this yearRPS 270 3 zips × 90 jobs/zip/year (climate-adjusted by our algorithm).
Homes with aging equipment in your zips 1,950 3 zips × ~650 homes in active wear-out window (climate-adjusted).
Mail pieces your budget buys / year 35,294 $2,500/mo × 12 ÷ $0.85 per piece
Actual mail volume / year 5,850 Capped by your aging-equipment pool (1,950 homes × 3 touches). Add zips to scale.
Responses at 2% (Tactrak-targeted) 117 Untargeted mail = 0.3%. Tactrak-qualified = 2%+ (DMA benchmark).
Closed jobs / year 29 Responses × your 25% close rate
Annual revenue from Tactrak campaigns CALCULATED
$275,500
29 closed jobs × $9,500 blended ticket = new revenue our algorithm helps you capture from your existing zips.
Tactrak Pro · annual cost $2,364
Net profit over the subscription $273,136
Return multiple on Tactrak 117×
Sources & method: per-zip job counts come from the Tactrak RPS algorithm, which applies peer-reviewed equipment survival data to local climate (NOAA cooling and heating degree days) and validates against national equipment shipment data. The 0.3% / 2% response rates are from the DMA Response Rate Report (untargeted vs. targeted). $0.85/piece is industry-standard all-in direct-mail cost (design + print + postage). The $9,500 default ticket is a blended figure across full replacements, partial upgrades, and high-value repairs — slide it to match your own job mix. Actual per-zip predictions vary widely; the model gives you specific numbers (with confidence intervals) when you start your free account. Note: the model above prices in Pro at $197/mo. Starter is $0/mo with 3 zips and up to 200 leads/mo — most of this revenue is reachable for free; Pro pays for itself the moment you scale past the Starter limits.

Prove the model for free. Scale when the math is obvious.

The free tier gives you ongoing access — not a one-time look. Pick one play, get 200 fresh leads delivered every month, mail them. If that produces one $11,500 job, the ROI is proven before you've paid a dollar.

Free Forever

Starter

$ 0 / forever

A permanent free account. 200 fresh leads a month across 3 zip codes — no card, no expiration.

  • 3 zip codes
  • 3 active playbooks
  • 200 fresh leads / month total
  • Full Market Opportunity Score
  • Revenue Gap Analysis with dollar values
  • Rebate / incentive data inside playbooks
  • Storm / weather-event playbooks
  • Follow-up + review scripts included
  • More than 3 zip codes
  • All 20 playbooks unlocked
  • Unlimited address exports
  • Top 50 highest-value properties
Start free account
For Multi-Location Operators

Enterprise

$ 447 / month

For agencies, multi-location operators, and contractors who want the filter engine.

  • Everything in Pro, plus:
  • Unlimited zip codes
  • Permit-verified targeting
  • Adjustable filter panel
  • Customizable campaign copy
  • Full competitor density monitoring
  • Dedicated account manager
  • 4-hour support response, business hours
Start Enterprise
Capability Starter Pro Enterprise
Zip codes310Unlimited
Fresh leads / month200 totalUnlimitedUnlimited
Market Opportunity Score
Revenue Gap analysis
Playbooks unlocked3 of 20All 20All 20 + custom copy
4-phase campaign system (copy + scripts)
Rebate / incentive data inside playbooks
Storm / weather-event playbooks (NOAA)
Address export cap200/moUnlimitedUnlimited
Top 50 highest-value properties
Competitor density dataSummaryFull monitoring
Permit-verified targeting
Adjustable filter panel
SupportSelf-serveStandard4-hour SLA + dedicated AM

Not sure which tier fits? Start free and find out.

The Starter account isn't a teaser — it's a permanent free tier with real playbooks, real addresses, and real campaigns. Run a few. See what the data looks like for your zips. We're here when you want to talk about scaling up.

Before you start your free account.

Short answers. If we missed one, call (888) 789-2467.

How is this different from ServiceTitan, Housecall Pro, or Jobber?

Those platforms show you your own data — jobs you've already done, revenue you've already made. Tactrak shows you the homes in your service area that haven't called you yet but are statistically likely to in the next 6–12 months. Completely new revenue.

Isn't this just a mailing list I could buy from a broker?

A broker sells you addresses. Tactrak gives you the addresses, phone numbers, and emails — plus the message copy, follow-up scripts, scheduling sequence, closing guidance, and review-request cadence. And the data showing which of those homes are most likely to need you. That's the difference between a list and a playbook.

How fast can I run my first campaign?

Under 10 minutes. Start your free account, pick a playbook, export the lead CSV, and hand it to your print shop. The copy is already written with your local data merged in — you just add your phone number and send.

Do I pay for the mailers on top of the subscription?

Yes. Tactrak is the targeting + playbook layer — we don't mail or launch your campaigns for you. Mail costs are separate, typically $0.50–$1.00 per piece all-in (design, print, postage). One closed job usually pays for a full year of mail.

Is my zip code covered?

Yes. Tactrak covers every zip code in the country. Lower-population zips yield smaller volumes — that's a function of how many homes are there, not coverage gaps — but the targeting, scoring, and playbooks work the same way everywhere.

What if I don't want to run direct mail?

Every playbook also includes pre-written digital ad copy for Facebook, Instagram, and Google LSA — plus door-hanger templates for local plays. Use whatever channel fits your market. The targeting and messaging are already done.

I only do plumbing. Does this work for me?

Yes. Tactrak filters playbooks by trade. Plumbing shops get 4 dedicated playbooks (Water Heater Failure Prevention, Heat Pump Water Heater Upgrade, Polybutylene Re-Pipe, Freeze-Alert pipe coverage). HVAC+Plumbing operators see every play.

I'm a roofer. Does this work for me?

Yes. 7 roofing playbooks — Hail Hit, Insurance Claim Window Closing, Wind Damage, Pre-Storm Inspection, Aging Roof, Premium Roof Upgrade, New Homeowner Roof Check. NOAA storm data tells you which homes were hit and haven't filed a claim yet.

What does the Market Opportunity Score actually measure?

A 0–100 score combining housing stock age, equipment lifecycle, climate stress, refrigerant exposure, and transaction history for your specific zip codes. Higher score = more homes in the replacement window. Each playbook fires at a different threshold.

Can I cancel anytime?

Month-to-month. No contracts, no cancellation fees. Start free, see what you get, scale when the math is obvious.